Posted by
Always To The Right on Thursday, February 19, 2009 8:44:48 PM
The only thing more predictable than a story every few weeks about
Iran’s nuclear progress are the caveats that it’s not time to worry just yet.
I guarantee that the very last news article written before the
announcement that they’ve got the bomb will end with reassurances that
it could be months or even years before the west has to act.
So relax! Nothing to fret about.
In a development that comes as the Obama administration
is drawing up its policy on negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear
programme, UN officials said Iran had produced more nuclear material
than previously thought.
They said Iran had now accumulated more than one tonne of low
enriched uranium hexafluoride at a facility in Natanz. If such a
quantity were further enriched it could produce more than 20kg of
fissile material – enough for a bomb…
However, UN officials emphasise that in order to produce fissile
material Iran would have to reconfigure its Natanz plant to produce
high enriched uranium rather than low enriched uranium – a highly
visible step that would take months – or to shift its stockpile to
another clandestine site…
A senior UN official added that countries usually waited until they
had an enriched uranium stockpile sufficient for several bombs before
proceeding to develop fissile material. But he conceded that Iran now
had enough enriched uranium for one bomb.
How long would it take to turn their stockpile into 20kg of
weaponized uranium? Depends on how many centrifuges they’re using to
enrich it. Could be six months — or it could be much, much sooner.
Of course, like the story says, that depends in turn on whether they
have any clandestine enrichment sites set up. Could be that they don’t
— or it could be that they have 10 to 15 of them. No wonder Ahmadinejad considers the matter of Iranian nukes “closed.” Exit question one: Er, didn’t the NYT already break this story in November? Exit question two: Is The One still planning to move full speed ahead on negotiations with Iran after
they have the bomb? Offhand, I can’t recall anyone putting that
question to him, but given our North Korea policy, I can only assume
the answer’s yes. That’ll make for a lovely incentive for other
countries weighing their proliferation options.