Posted by
Always To The Right on Tuesday, November 11, 2008 8:13:32 PM
Some of it’s attributable to a honeymoon period that’ll wear off next year, but eyeball this graph
at the Standard to see how many subgroups skewed at least 10 points
more heavily Democratic this time than in 2004. It’s the demographic
equivalent of that county map I posted last week. Jay Cost thinks it probably isn’t a realignment
due to the lack of any grand catalyzing issue a la, say, 1860 or 1932,
but needless to say, much depends on how sturdy the blue trend is among younger voters.
I remember seeing a graph in the Times, I think, around two years ago
showing that people’s party identification at age 20 proves remarkably
resilient over time: Essentially, if the GOP’s in favor when you reach
that age, the odds of you becoming — and staying — a Republican are
much greater than if the Dems are in power and vice versa. (I can’t
find the graph after 20 minutes of googling, sad to say.) Which I guess
means that if The One and the Dems manage to avoid doing anything nutty
too soon to spoil the goodwill, they should have a dependable blue
youth base to carry forward for years to come.