Posted by
Always To The Right on Wednesday, November 05, 2008 2:11:13 PM
Pretty much, yeah. CNN has the popular vote
at 52/46 as I write this but the numbers are still moving; when I run
the math from the actual vote totals, it’s 53.0/46.9, for a margin of
6.1 percent. The final RCP spread: 7.6 percent, a figure boosted by a few eleventh-hour double-digit outliers like Gallup and Zogby but otherwise reflective of the conventional wisdom over the last month that had the race steady at six or seven points. Rasmussen and Pew nailed it and Fox, CNN, Hotline, and McClatchy were all off by a single point, well within the margin of error. Nate Silver’s statistical model? 6.1 percent exactly.