Posted by
Always To The Right on Wednesday, July 23, 2008 9:50:13 PM
Everyone agrees the economy's in the tank and headed for recession —
if not already in one. The first quarter was weak, and the second
quarter will be weaker, the argument goes. Hold on just one minute.
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But the prevailing gloomy consumer sentiment seems to be at odds
with what's actually happening right now in the economy, at least as
far as the data go.
John McCain's adviser, economist and former Sen. Phil Gramm, got
canned for suggesting that the only recession we had was "mental."
Turns out, he's right.
The U.S. in the second quarter, while not booming, seems to be growing quite nicely, thank you. Not even close to recession.
A consensus estimate of economists by Bloomberg puts second-quarter
GDP at about 2.2%. First Trust Advisors' Brian Wesbury, who is
admittedly at the extreme end of the expectations spectrum, thinks GDP
growth will be 3%.
Not only not a recession, but quite respectable.
In short, people may think we're in a recession, but we aren't.