Posted by
On the Right on Monday, July 14, 2008 3:42:19 PM
Let's Not Be Provocative!
Obama might not admit it, but for about five years now the Bush
administration has followed a course of action rather similar to his
preferred policy. Bush has pursued multilateral diplomacy through
international institutions (the U.N., the IAEA) and through an ad hoc
coalition called the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the U.K.,
and the United States) in order to induce Iran to suspend its
enrichment activities. Obama's policy would be a tad more unilateral,
because he would prefer to have direct negotiations with the Iranians
and thus remove our allies from the equation altogether.
But does any serious person believe that an offer of direct
negotiations without preconditions would change the basic situation?
Most reasonable advocates of such talks advocate them just so the
United States can say it has "gone the extra mile" in trying to
persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program.
Iran has suffered no major consequences from the Bush
administration--or anyone else--for its reckless and belligerent
actions. Quite the contrary: The more irresponsible Iran's behavior has
been, the more entreaties for diplomatic rapprochement it has received.
This is dangerous. History shows that conflict is more likely when
aggressors feel emboldened, when provocations go unanswered. Only when
America reestablishes a credible threat of the use of force might Iran
alter its behavior. When it comes to Iran, then, maybe it really is
time for a change we can believe in. Maybe it's time the Bush
administration--in response to the failure of its current
policy--changed from scared-to-provoke doves to scary-to-the-enemy
hawks.