Posted by
Always To The Right on Sunday, January 20, 2008 8:25:36 PM
What to think about the Captain's take on South Carolina. I don't like Rudy or McCain, so according to the Captain that only leaves me one choice [I say that's according to the Captain].
The South Carolina primary turned out to be a clarifying event after
all. Instead of the potential for five front-runners in the Super
Tuesday contest in two weeks, it appears we will have at best three
viable candidates for the nomination, and only if Rudy Giuliani proves
his strategy correct by winning Florida. What will be left will be the
three candidates that the conservative blogosphere has relentlessly
criticized for their lack of lifelong fealty to the Ronald Reagan
legacy, but whom voters have nevertheless trusted enough to support in
the primaries.
First, the failure of Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson to win in
South Carolina signals the end of their campaigns, whether they
recognize it or not, especially for Fred. He made South Carolina his
explicit firewall, the place where he had to have a great showing in
order to retain credibility as a candidate. A third-place finish among
one of the most conservative groups of voters in the primaries does not
bode well, nor does the fact that he actually placed fourthamong
self-professed conservatives in the CNN exit polls. He became the first
"front-runner" to fail to win a must-win contest, and he will likely
withdraw sooner rather than later.
Huckabee's dream took a beating last night. The Arkansas governor
should have won the first Southern primary, especially given the high
numbers of evangelicals turning out for the election. He took 43% of
them, but McCain got 27% to mostly negate Huckabee's big advantage. His
populist rhetoric ran out of steam in the Palmetto State, and although
he made it close, he failed to convert. And if Huckabee can't win in
South Carolina, where else can he win? What is his path to the
nomination? Without the kind of name recognition that McCain has or the
money that Romney and Giuliani can command, he's probably reached the
end of the line as well. He'll stay in the race and collect delegates
from proportional contests, but he won't win a significant state.
That leaves Romney and McCain, and possibly Giuliani. Rudy needs
Florida to keep the delegate gap from getting too large and to maintain
credibility in the large coastal states that could carry him to the
nomination. All three of these candidates have significant issues with
the party's base, McCain most of all -- and yet these are the three
left standing as the smoke begins to clear.
My e-mail sounds the frustration of this situation. Messages and
comments on the blog have become filled with declarations of sitting on
hands, the destruction of the party, and so on. However, the plain fact
is that the actual party -- the people voting for the candidates --
have made it clear that they have a high level of comfort with Romney
and McCain, and potentially Rudy as well.
I'm actually a lot more optimistic than most about the result. If
these three contend for the nomination, we have two candidates who
employed conservative principles in very liberal settings as executives
and showed remarkable success, and a Senator who at least understands
the nature of the conflict of this age and knows how to fight it. All
of them have more applicable experience than any of the Democratic
candidates, and perhaps more than all three of them combined.
Rather than focus on the negatives, the Republicans still left to
vote should focus on the positives. Which of these three can lead this
nation in war, can implement conservative policies on economics and
foreign policy, and work to reduce spending and taxes in meaningful
ways that expands liberty rather than constraining it? Which of them
have actually done this successfully, and which can use that experience
in a general election to beat either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?
From where I sit, I'd say we have good candidates, any of which are
easily supportable by Republicans in a general election. Instead of
declaring that the sky is falling, let's keep our eyes on the prize.
These are the candidates that have resonated with the voters, and so
these are the choices. The party only disintegrates if we keep wishing
for a resurrection of Ronald Reagan rather than working pragmatically
to find the best in what we have.